Crime and justice in England and Wales

Words to know

Crime Survey

A survey that asks about 35,000 people what crimes happened to them, whether or not they reported them.

Police recorded crime

Crimes reported to the police that the police record.

Homicide

Murder, manslaughter and infanticide.

Margin of error

How far a survey estimate could be from the true value because only a sample was asked.

Prison capacity

The number of places the prison service can use safely.

Reoffending

Committing a new crime after being punished for a previous one.

Charts

Two measures of crime, year by year

England and Wales. The Crime Survey did not run for two years in the pandemic.

Questions

1. Calculate[3]

   The Crime Survey estimated 12.77 million crimes (excluding fraud) in 2001-02 and 4.33 million in 2025-26. Calculate the percentage change. Give your answer to the nearest whole number.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Ratio, proportion and rates of change: percentage change
   Answer. -66%

   M1 for 4.33 − 12.77. M1 for ÷ 12.77 × 100. A1 for -66.

   Common error: Dividing by the later value.
2. Write[2]

   In 2025-26 the police recorded 5,235,213 crimes (excluding fraud) and the Crime Survey estimated 4.33 million. Write the ratio (police recorded) : (Crime Survey) in the form n : 1, with n to 1 decimal place.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Ratio, proportion and rates of change: ratio
   Answer. 1.2 : 1

   M1 for 5,235,213 ÷ 4,333,000. A1 for 1.2.

   Common error: Mixing millions and units.
3. Calculate[3]

   Police-recorded shoplifting was 228,107 in 2020-21 and 507,086 in 2025-26. Calculate the percentage change.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Ratio, proportion and rates of change: percentage change
   Answer. +122%

   M1 for the difference 278,979. M1 for ÷ 228,107 × 100. A1 for 122.

   Common error: Using the later value as the base.
4. Calculate[2]

   The police recorded 5.33, 5.58, 5.40, 5.31 and 5.24 million crimes in the last five years. Calculate the mean number of crimes recorded a year, in millions.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Statistics: averages
   Answer. 5.37 million

   M1 for adding and dividing by 5. A1 for 5.37.
5. Work out[2]

   On 5 October 2026, 86,779 people were in prison in England and Wales and the prison service had 89,012 places it could use. Work out the population as a percentage of the places. Give your answer to 1 decimal place.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Number: percentages of amounts
   Answer. 97.5%

   M1 for 86,779 ÷ 89,012. A1 for 97.5.

   Common error: Using the wrong figure as the base.
6. Explain[2]

   Police-recorded crime has risen since 2014 while the Crime Survey shows crime falling. Explain one reason why the two measures can move in different directions.

   GCSE Citizenship · Understanding data: counts and what they measure
   Answer. Reporting and recording practices differ from experience

   B1 police figures count only crimes reported and recorded. B1 more reporting or stricter recording raises the count without more crime; the survey asks people about their experience.
7. Explain[4]

   The Crime Survey asks about 35,000 people what happened to them. It estimated 4.33 million crimes (excluding fraud) in 2025-26. (a) Explain why a sample can be used to estimate crime across England and Wales. [2] (b) Give one reason the estimate may be biased. [1] (c) State why the figure has a margin of error. [1]

   A-level Mathematics · Statistics: sampling (check your board)
   Answer. Random sample of households scaled up; non-response; sampling variation

   (a) B1 a random, representative sample of households; B1 results are scaled to the population. (b) B1 non-response or people not wishing to report, or groups excluded such as under-10s. (c) B1 different samples would give slightly different estimates.
8. Explain[6]

   The prison population was 86,779 against 89,012 places. Explain two opportunity costs of building more prison places.

   A-level Economics · AQA 7136, Edexcel 9EC0 · Opportunity cost and public spending
   Answer. Spending on prisons means less on other priorities

   Each developed reason: 1 mark to identify, up to 2 to develop (cause and effect, with data). e.g. (1) money spent on prisons cannot fund schools, health care or crime prevention. (2) land and construction resources have other uses. (3) tax or borrowing needed to pay for them, with effects elsewhere in the economy.
9. Analyse[9]

   Police recorded 499 homicides in 2025-26 and 5.28 million fraud incidents appeared on the Crime Survey in 2025-26. Analyse how crime creates costs for people who are not directly involved.

   A-level Economics · AQA 7136, Edexcel 9EC0 · Externalities: negative externalities of crime
   Answer. Negative externalities: costs of crime to third parties

   Levels: L1 (1–3) relevant points, little analysis; L2 (4–6) developed chains of reasoning; L3 (7–9) well-developed analysis, supported by the data, with a clear line of argument. Indicative: third-party costs (fear, higher insurance and security spending, policing and court costs paid by taxpayers, lost business confidence); private costs of crime understate social cost; policy responses (policing, prison, prevention) and their costs.
10. Evaluate[12]

    Police recorded 5.84 million crimes at the highest point in our figures (2003-04) and 5.24 million in 2025-26. Evaluate whether longer prison sentences are the most effective way to reduce crime.

    A-level Politics · Government and policy: balancing prevention and punishment (check your board)
    Answer. A balanced judgement with evidence

    Levels: L1 (1–3) a few relevant points; L2 (4–6) analysis, one-sided or unsupported; L3 (7–9) developed analysis with data and some judgement; L4 (10–12) balanced, evidence-based judgement that answers the question. Indicative: for — deterrence for some offences, incapacitation, public confidence; against — cost, capacity limits (86,779 people against 89,012 places), reoffending, effect on communities; alternatives (prevention, community sentences, policing); evidence is mixed and depends on the offence.

Ideas for discussion

• Should crime be counted by what people experience or by what is reported to the police? Why?
• If recorded crime goes up, how could you tell whether there is more crime or more reporting?
• What is prison for: punishment, protection of the public, or changing behaviour? Does the evidence support each?