People: population, migration and ageing

Words to know

Net migration

People who arrive to live for a year or more minus people who leave.

Life expectancy

How long a baby born now would live, on average, at current death rates.

Fertility rate

The average number of children a woman has in her lifetime at current birth rates.

Ageing population

A rising share of people aged 65 and over.

Asylum seeker

A person who has asked the government for protection because they fear persecution at home.

Provisional

A first estimate that can be revised.

Charts

Population and migration, year by year

Migration figures are for the year to December, estimates revised as new data arrive.

Questions

1. Calculate[3]

   The UK population was 65.09 million in 2015 and 69.48 million in 2025. Calculate the percentage change. Give your answer to 1 decimal place.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Ratio, proportion and rates of change: percentage change
   Answer. +6.8%

   M1 for 69.48 − 65.09. M1 for ÷ 65.09 × 100. A1 for 6.8.

   Common error: Dividing by the later value.
2. Work out[3]

   The UK population grew from 65.09 million to 69.48 million between 2015 and 2025. Work out the mean increase in people per year. Give your answer in standard form to 2 significant figures.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Number: standard form and large numbers
   Answer. 4.4 × 10^5

   M1 for the increase 4,396,900. M1 for ÷ 10 years. A1 for 439,690 ≈ 4.4 × 10^5.

   Common error: Forgetting to convert millions.
3. Work out[2]

   In 2025, England had 58.83 million people and Scotland 5.55 million. Write the ratio England : Scotland in the form n : 1, with n to the nearest whole number.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Ratio, proportion and rates of change: ratio
   Answer. 11 : 1

   M1 for 58.83 ÷ 5.55. A1 for 11.
4. Calculate[2]

   Net migration to the UK was 467,000, 891,000, 848,000, 331,000 and 171,000 in the last five years shown. Calculate the mean.

   GCSE Maths · AQA 8300 · Statistics: averages
   Answer. 541,600

   M1 for adding and dividing by 5. A1 for 541,600.
5. Explain[4]

   A baby born in the UK can expect to live 81.4 years and women have 1.55 children on average. Explain how these two facts lead to an ageing population.

   GCSE Geography · The UK's changing population: ageing (check your board)
   Answer. Longer lives and fewer births raise the share of older people

   B1 rising life expectancy means more people live to older ages. B1 a fertility rate below about 2.1 means fewer young people are born to replace the population. B1+B1 development: the share aged 65+ rises (to 19.7% ) and the dependency ratio changes.
6. Describe[3]

   In 2026 (to Jun), 85,891 people claimed asylum in the UK. Describe the difference between an asylum seeker and a migrant who comes to work.

   GCSE Citizenship · Understanding data: counts and what they measure
   Answer. Asylum seeker seeks protection; worker migrates for a job

   B1 an asylum seeker asks for protection because they fear persecution. B1 they have a legal right to have the claim considered. B1 a migrant worker moves mainly for employment and usually needs a visa.
7. Explain[4]

   Net migration over the last five years shown was 467,000, 891,000, 848,000, 331,000, 171,000. The mean is 541,600 and the median 467,000. Explain which measure better describes a typical year, and why.

   A-level Mathematics · Statistics: measures of location (check your board)
   Answer. Median is less affected by extreme years

   B1 the mean is pulled by very high or low years. B1 the median ignores extreme values. B1 the five values are very different so the median is more typical. B1 either with a reason for the series' sharp rise and fall.
8. Analyse[9]

   Immigration was about 813,000 and emigration 642,000 in the year to December 2025. Analyse how a rise in net migration could affect wages and the labour market.

   A-level Economics · AQA 7136, Edexcel 9EC0 · The labour market: migration and labour supply
   Answer. Labour supply shifts right; wage effects depend on demand and skills

   Levels: L1 (1–3) relevant points, little analysis; L2 (4–6) developed chains of reasoning; L3 (7–9) well-developed analysis, supported by the data, with a clear line of argument. Indicative: labour supply shifts right so equilibrium wage falls or grows more slowly in affected markets; demand also rises through spending and migrants' own consumption; effects differ by skill level and region; fiscal effects; shortages eased in some sectors.
9. Assess[9]

   Net migration to the UK was 171,000 in 2025 and 891,000 at its highest point in our figures (2022). Assess the economic and social impacts of international migration on a receiving country.

   A-level Geography · Population change, migration and its impacts (check your board)
   Answer. Impacts on labour, services, culture and demography

   Levels: L1 (1–3) relevant points, little analysis; L2 (4–6) developed chains of reasoning; L3 (7–9) well-developed analysis, supported by the data, with a clear line of argument. Indicative: filling skill gaps, tax contributions, pressure on housing and services in places, cultural diversity, age structure; impacts vary by place and over time; use of data.
10. Evaluate[12]

    19.7% of people in the UK were aged 65 or over in 2025. Evaluate strategies a government could use to respond to an ageing population.

    A-level Geography · Population ageing and strategies to respond (check your board)
    Answer. A reasoned judgement on cost, effectiveness and fairness

    Levels: L1 (1–3) a few relevant points; L2 (4–6) analysis, one-sided or unsupported; L3 (7–9) developed analysis with data and some judgement; L4 (10–12) balanced, evidence-based judgement that answers the question. Indicative: raising the state pension age, encouraging later work and savings, immigration, support for families, investing in health and care, productivity; costs, who gains and loses, political acceptability; no single strategy is enough.

Ideas for discussion

• Why do estimates of migration get revised, and how should a newspaper report a figure that may change?
• What would a country need to do if its population is ageing and its birth rate is below the replacement level?
• Is it fair to compare asylum claims with total migration? What does each one measure?